The global EV market is not spreading uniformly; it is bifurcating
Reading electric-vehicle(EV) adoption through a single average number can obscure what is actually happening in the market. Global sales are expected to exceed 20 million units in 2025, with a share of new-car sales above 25%. But the composition differs sharply by region. In China, half of new cars have already shifted to electrified vehicles; in Europe(EU), BEV is only just approaching a 20% share, while internal-combustion vehicles and hybrids still remain substantial. The two sides are also clashing on trade policy. This article organizes the China-EU split using primary information.
China — NEVs exceed half of new cars, and exports reshape the market
In China, electrification is moving beyond the "adoption" phase. In October 2025, new energy vehicle(NEV) sales exceeded 51.6% of all new-car sales for the first time. From January through October, NEV production reached about 13.02 million units, up 33.1% year-on-year, overwhelming the world by volume as well.
Exports stand out even more. Over the same period, NEV exports rose 90.4% year-on-year to 2.01 million units. China already accounts for more than 70% of global EV production, and export growth layered on top of its domestic market scale is giving it growing leverage in both price and supply capacity. For materials and battery suppliers, this means both procurement sources and competitors are becoming increasingly concentrated in China.
EU — BEV nears 20%, but HEV remains the largest "bridge" category
Europe is also electrifying, but on a different trajectory from China. The EU's BEV market share expanded to 19.7% on a cumulative basis in April 2026, up sharply from 15.3% a year earlier. The combined share of petrol and diesel vehicles fell to 30.2%, making the contraction of internal-combustion vehicles clear. BEV registrations are accelerating across major countries, with Italy up 73.1%, France up 48.2%, and Germany up 41.3%.
Even so, the market is not "all BEV." The most selected powertrain in the EU is still hybrid(HEV), at 38.6%. In other words, Europe is in a multi-stage transition in which HEV acts as a bridge, rather than moving from internal-combustion vehicles to BEVs in one step. This differs from China's "half of new cars are NEV" market in both transition speed and composition.
Policy divergence — the EU protects domestic industry with duties on China
The bifurcation is visible not only in market numbers but also in trade policy. The EU has applied countervailing duties of up to 35.3% on Chinese-made BEVs for five years from 30 October 2024. Rates differ by company: BYD is 17.0%, Geely is 18.8%, and SAIC and non-cooperating companies face the highest rate of 35.3%. The EU frames the measure as a response to government subsidies across China's BEV value chain, which it determined pose a threat of economic injury to the EU industry.
China is pressing with volume and cost, while the EU is using tariffs to protect domestic industry. This structure is no longer just a gap in unit sales; it is becoming a fixed conflict over industrial policy.
China: scale and cost led
NEVs are 51.6% of new cars, production is up 33.1%, and exports are up 90.4%. China holds more than 70% of global EV production and leads on price and supply capacity.
EU: a multi-stage transition
BEV is rising to 19.7%, while HEV remains the largest category at 38.6%. Internal-combustion vehicles are shrinking, but bridge demand remains substantial.
Policy: tariff conflict
The EU applies duties of up to 35.3% on Chinese-made BEVs (BYD 17.0% / Geely 18.8% / SAIC 35.3%). The dispute is becoming one over industrial policy.
Business impact
Both procurement sources and competitors are concentrating in China. Supply design for Europe needs to account for tariffs and local-production requirements.
What this bifurcation means
The China-EU split shows that the premise of treating EV as "one global market" is breaking down. Even within electrification, market speed (China above half, EU around 20%), composition (BEV versus HEV), and policy (free competition versus tariffs) differ by region. For suppliers and manufacturers, this means designing different strategies by region at the same time: competing with Chinese players on cost in some settings, and supplying Europe under the assumption of tariffs and local-production requirements in others. Planning only from the global average adoption rate will miss this split.